New Delhi
The government of India’s think-tank Niti Aayog has forecast a 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers (e-2W) in the Indian market by FY 2026–27 in case of an optimistic scenario.
Under this scenario, all factors that have a positive influence on the adoption of e-2W have to be present.
The very crucial demand incentive is assumed to be in place throughout the period and the battery cost is assumed to reduce by 8% annually. It is also assumed that the range and power of the vehicle has to be improved by 5% during FY 2024 to FY 2026 and by 10% in FY 2027, the report noted.
Niti Aayog forecast that e-2W sales may cross 2.2 crore units in FY 2028–29 under the optimistic, same performance and battery cost challenged scenarios. In case of the incentive-driven scenario, in which demand incentive is assumed to continue throughout but with only 2% reduction of battery cost annually and no improvement in range and performance, the e-2W sale will touch around 55 lakh unit and at a market penetration of 21.86% by FY 2031
In the least favorable challenged diffusion scenario, a maximum market penetration of only 5.82% will be achieved by FY 2024. This will be followed by a decline due to removal of demand incentive.
