U.S. and Russia Risk Unchecked Nuclear Arms Race as New START Treaty
Nuclear Treaty Expiry
California
The United States and Russia are on the brink of an unrestrained nuclear arms race for the first time since the Cold War, unless an eleventh-hour agreement is reached before the expiration of their last remaining arms control pact. The New START treaty, which limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems, is set to lapse on February 5, leaving the world’s two largest nuclear powers without any formal constraints on their long-range arsenals.
If the treaty expires, it would mark the first time in more than five decades that Washington and Moscow operate without mutually agreed limits on their strategic nuclear forces. The current framework traces its roots to landmark agreements signed in 1972, when U.S. President Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev concluded historic arms control deals during the first-ever visit by a U.S. president to Moscow. Those accords laid the foundation for decades of nuclear restraint and verification.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed extending existing limits on missiles and nuclear warheads for one additional year. The move, according to Moscow, would provide breathing room for negotiations on a successor agreement that reflects current geopolitical realities. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to formally respond to the proposal, fueling uncertainty as the deadline approaches.
Trump has signaled a willingness to let the treaty lapse, saying earlier this month that if it expires, it expires, while arguing that any future agreement should be broader and better. Some U.S. lawmakers support rejecting Putin’s offer, contending that freeing Washington from treaty limits would allow it to expand its nuclear arsenal in response to the rapid buildup by a third power, China.
At the same time, Trump has said he wants to pursue denuclearisation talks involving both Russia and China, envisioning a more comprehensive global framework. Beijing, however, has dismissed such expectations as unrealistic, arguing that its nuclear forces remain far smaller than those of the United States and Russia, and that it should not be pressured into joining disarmament talks on unequal terms.
