India is set to ramp up Russian oil imports in September, lured by steeper discounts and higher availability due to refinery outages in Russia, even as the U.S. tightens tariffs and the EU lowers price caps.
New Delhi
India’s reliance on Russian crude is expected to deepen next month, with traders estimating a 10–20% increase in purchases compared to August. This rise translates to an additional 150,000–300,000 barrels per day, driven by Moscow’s inability to process oil domestically after Ukrainian drone strikes disabled around 17% of Russia’s refining capacity.
India has emerged as the largest buyer of displaced Russian oil since Western sanctions were imposed following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The discounted supplies have enabled Indian refiners such as Reliance and Nayara Energy to lower input costs, but the purchases have attracted criticism from Washington. The U.S., under President Donald Trump, recently raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50% and accused New Delhi of “profiteering” from the war economy.
Indian officials, however, counter Western criticism, pointing out that the EU and the U.S. continue to trade billions of dollars’ worth of goods with Russia. New Delhi maintains that its oil decisions are based on economic pragmatism, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reiterating that India will act in its own energy security interests.
Analysts say unless India issues a policy shift or global trade economics change drastically, Russian crude will remain central to its energy mix, meeting around 40% of its current demand. With Urals crude being sold at discounts of $2–$3 per barrel to dated Brent, traders expect India to keep buying despite tightening sanctions.
Energy experts warn that halting Indian imports could reduce global supply by about one million barrels per day, potentially driving prices close to $100 per barrel.
