Seoul
The global semiconductor market is projected to exceed $1.6 trillion in 2026, driven by rapidly rising investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and growing demand for advanced memory chips, according to a report by the Korea Eximbank research centre.
The latest projection represents a sharp upward revision from forecasts made earlier this year. Until 2025, the global semiconductor industry had been expected to cross the $1 trillion mark only around 2030. However, major US and Chinese hyperscalers have significantly increased spending on AI infrastructure, accelerating demand for chips used in data centres.
Memory chips manufactured by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are expected to account for more than half of the global semiconductor market as AI systems process increasingly large volumes of data.
Prices have also surged. By the end of August, DRAM prices had risen 4.4 times from a year earlier to $25, while NAND flash memory prices increased ninefold to $30.50. Although memory prices are expected to stabilise from next year, the broader semiconductor market is forecast to continue expanding and could reach around $2 trillion by 2030.
The report said long-term supply agreements between major technology companies and memory manufacturers could provide greater stability to the industry.
Employment in South Korea’s chip industry has also increased. The sector employed 174,000 workers during the first quarter, up 15 per cent from 2018. Average monthly wages reached 4.32 million won during the first half of this year, rising 3.1 per cent annually.
The expansion comes even as parts of the AI industry debate whether development should slow because of concerns surrounding the technology’s risks and control.
“Big tech companies are pursuing long-term supply agreements with memory chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which will help stabilise the semiconductor industry compared with the past,” the Korea Eximbank research report said.
Industry sources said continued investment by major technology companies in AI infrastructure and the wider adoption of AI services could keep memory-chip demand strong in the near term.
