US aid cuts may cause 14M global deaths: Lancet

New Delhi

A study published in The Lancet warns that the rollback of U.S. foreign aid, largely under the Donald Trump administration, could lead to over 14 million additional deaths globally by 2030—more than 4.5 million of them children under five. The research highlights the critical role of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which supported health programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), preventing around 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021—30 million among children.

USAID’s efforts contributed to a 15% drop in overall mortality and a 32% decline in child mortality. However, with 83% of USAID programs reportedly cut, these gains are now at risk. Davide Rasella, lead author and professor at ISGlobal in Spain, said the cuts could cause a major health crisis in vulnerable countries, undoing 20 years of progress and equating the impact to a pandemic or large-scale conflict.

The study analyzed data from 133 countries, combining past evaluations (2001–2021) and predictive models through 2030. Countries receiving strong USAID support saw major reductions in death rates from diseases like HIV/AIDS (down 74%), malaria (down 53%), and neglected tropical diseases (down 51%) compared to less-funded nations.

Other notable improvements included fewer deaths from tuberculosis, diarrheal diseases, malnutrition, respiratory infections, and maternal health issues. Researchers estimate that if funding cuts continue, around 700,000 extra child deaths could occur each year by 2030.