New Delhi
A new study by Australian researchers has warned that a 4-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures could result in a 40% drop in world GDP by 2100. This is a sharp rise from previous predictions, which estimated a reduction of around 11%.
The University of New South Wales (UNSW) Institute for Climate Risk and Response (ICRR) recently published these new projections in the journal Environmental Research. The study reveals that earlier models failed to account for key factors, such as supply chain disruptions, which would severely impact global economies in a warmer future. These new findings challenge previous climate models and benchmarks on carbon emissions.
Lead researcher Dr. Timothy Neal, a senior lecturer in the School of Economics at UNSW, explained that traditional economic models focused on historical data linking weather events to economic growth. However, they didn’t consider the disruptions to global supply chains, which are already stretched and vulnerable to extreme weather events.
The study suggests that limiting global warming to 1.7°C, as recommended by the Paris Agreement, is crucial to avoid such severe economic damage. Dr. Neal stressed that while some colder regions, like Russia and Canada, may initially benefit, no country is immune from the global supply chain impacts.
The study also highlights the need for better climate adaptation models, such as human migration, which are not yet fully understood or incorporated into climate forecasts. This updated analysis underscores the urgent need for stronger climate action worldwide.
