Geopolitics, oil, FIIs to shape markets

New Delhi

The Indian stock market is expected to face ups and downs this week due to rising tensions in the Middle East, high crude oil prices, and foreign investor activity. The Iran-Israel conflict has intensified after the United States carried out airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, making things more serious.

Experts believe that if the conflict grows, investor confidence could drop sharply. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research at SBICAP Securities, said the ongoing war is heavily affecting market mood. He added that investors are being cautious due to fears of a larger regional war.

Crude oil prices recently crossed a key level (the 200-day EMA), though the rise has slowed. Still, prices remain high, raising worries about inflation and possible supply issues, which could hurt the market.

Despite these concerns, Indian markets ended last week with strong gains. The Nifty rose by 1.59% to reach 25,112.40, while the Sensex jumped by 1.59% to settle at 82,408.17. The Nifty Private Bank Index led the rally, gaining 1.64%.

Other sectors also did well—Nifty Auto went up 1.51%, Nifty IT rose 1.36%, and Nifty Services increased 1.48%. However, Nifty Metal and Pharma dropped over 1.5%.

Looking ahead, Shah said the Nifty has been moving between 25,222 and 24,462 during the last 28 sessions. With frequent gap-up and gap-down openings, the market remains unpredictable, offering few clear trading chances.