New Delhi
ICRA has estimated India’s GDP growth at 6.9% for the quarter ending March 2025, and 6.3% for the entire 2024–25 financial year. This forecast is lower than the National Statistics Office (NSO)’s earlier prediction of 6.5% GDP growth for the fiscal year.
The NSO had projected a 6.5% growth rate in February. Growth in the first three quarters stood at 6.5% in June, 5.6% in September, and 6.2% in December. To meet the NSO’s target, the economy would need to grow at 7.6% in the March quarter. ICRA’s current estimate of 6.9% falls short of that target.
The NSO is expected to release its final GDP numbers for FY25 and Q4 estimates on May 31.
ICRA stated that while there was a rise in year-on-year growth from Q3’s 6.2% to Q4’s 6.9%, the full-year growth would slow to 6.3%. This would mark a big drop from the 9.2% growth recorded in 2023–24.
ICRA’s Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said growth in private consumption and investment was uneven in the March quarter. Investment activity faced delays due to uncertainty related to tariffs. Services sector exports remained strong, showing double-digit growth, but merchandise exports declined after showing improvement in the December quarter.
The report highlights that unless major changes are made in earlier data, India is likely to miss the 6.5% full-year growth goal. The economic outlook remains cautious with mixed signals from key sectors.
ICRA’s analysis offers a more conservative view than official projections, reflecting challenges in sustaining high economic momentum.