Canberra
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has issued a draft roadmap for the country’s energy transition, cautioning that an earlier-than-planned closure of coal-fired power plants poses a growing risk of a shortfall in electricity generation capacity. AEMO’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) emphasizes the need for urgent investments to support new, affordable energy sources and calls for a doubling of the rollout of new transmission lines by 2030. The report highlights that the closure of 10 major coal-fired plants since 2012, coupled with potential faster closures of the remaining fleet, could jeopardize the reliability of the electricity grid. The ISP forecasts that 90% of Australia’s current 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generation capacity could be retired by 2034-35, with the possibility of complete retirement by 2038. To replace this outgoing coal generation and meet rising electricity demands, the report underscores the need to triple the capacity of solar and wind farms from approximately 19GW to 57GW by 2030 and expand it further to 126GW by 2050. Additionally, rooftop solar generation capacity is projected to quadruple to 72GW by 2050, requiring the construction of almost 10,000 kilometers of new transmission lines. Daniel Westerman, CEO of AEMO, emphasized the urgency of the transition, stating that the plan underscores the need for tripling renewable generation, doubling dispatchable storage, hydro and gas-powered generation, and constructing 5,000 kilometers of transmission in the next decade. The final version of the ISP is expected to be released by June 2024, following a period of public submissions on the draft roadmap.
