Sao Paulo
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a simulated runoff ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election, according to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on Wednesday.
The survey showed Lula, the leftist incumbent, narrowly ahead of Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula received 47.7% support in the hypothetical runoff, compared with 47.4% for Flavio Bolsonaro. The difference falls well within the poll’s margin of error of one percentage point.
The latest numbers mark a slight shift from an earlier AtlasIntel poll released on September 17. That survey had Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by 47.2% to 46.8% in a simulated second round.
The poll also showed Lula maintaining an advantage in a first-round scenario. He was backed by 45.8% of respondents, while Bolsonaro received 43.4%. Renan Santos followed with 4.5%, Augusto Cury had 2.1%, and Ronaldo Caiado stood at 1.3%.
Compared with the previous survey, Lula’s first-round support increased from 44.1% to 45.8%, while Bolsonaro’s rose from 41.7% to 43.4%.
Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes, the two leading candidates will advance to a runoff scheduled for October 25.
The latest poll suggests a closely contested race between Lula and Bolsonaro, with neither candidate holding a lead outside the survey’s margin of error.
AtlasIntel surveyed 5,015 people between September 17 and 22. The poll’s margin of error is one percentage point. Poll results can vary depending on methodology, timing and sampling, and the figures represent voter preferences at the time of the survey rather than a prediction of the election outcome.
The contest is being closely watched as Brazil heads toward the first round, with the possibility of a second-round confrontation between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro remaining central to the campaign.
