Australia warns a potentially strong El Niño could form in 2026, bringing drought risks locally and heavy rainfall disruptions across global regions.
SYDNEY
Australia’s weather authorities warned that an El Nino climate pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and could grow into one of the strongest in decades in the second half of 2026. The Bureau of Meteorology said sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have crossed key thresholds, confirming the development of El Nino conditions. It added that most climate models suggest the event could intensify further in the coming months.
Officials said around half of the forecasts indicate the system may reach levels not seen since the 1950s, making it potentially one of the most powerful events in nearly 70 years. El Nino is a natural climate pattern that usually brings major weather changes across the world. It is often linked with reduced rainfall in parts of Australia, especially on the east coast, along with hotter and drier conditions. The bureau warned that such conditions could seriously affect agriculture, as Australia is a major global exporter of wheat, sugar, and beef. Lower rainfall and heat stress could impact crop growth and livestock production.
Experts also noted that the effects of El Nino may be worsened by ongoing climate change, which can increase temperature extremes and shift rainfall patterns. The weather system is also expected to bring heavy rains to parts of the Americas, while disrupting farming activities in parts of Asia, where food security concerns are already high. Australia experienced a severe El Nino event in 2023 and 2024, which led to one of the driest periods on record and affected farm output significantly.