Intro: Amid rising global energy prices and declining approval ratings, former U.S. President Donald Trump is confronting a critical strategic dilemma as the conflict with Iran enters its second month.
Washington
After nearly a month of sustained military operations conducted jointly by the United States and Israel, the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate.
Despite intensified diplomatic efforts, the conflict has expanded beyond its initial scope, with Iran maintaining significant leverage over global energy routes.
Analysts note that Tehran has effectively disrupted oil and gas shipments through the Gulf, contributing to one of the most severe energy supply shocks in modern history.
The ongoing instability has sent global markets into turmoil, pushing energy prices higher and raising concerns about inflation worldwide. At the same time, Iran has continued launching missile and drone attacks across the region, further complicating efforts to stabilize the situation. Experts say the conflict now poses not only a regional threat but also a broader economic challenge with global implications.
Within the White House, officials indicate that Trump is keen to avoid a prolonged military entanglement. He has reportedly instructed aides to emphasize a limited conflict duration of four to six weeks, signaling his desire to avoid what he has described as a forever war. However, insiders caution that this timeline appears increasingly uncertain as hostilities persist and expand.
At the same time, Trump has issued warnings of a potential escalation if diplomatic negotiations fail. His administration has explored backchannel communication efforts, including a reported 15-point peace proposal conveyed through Pakistan, suggesting an urgent attempt to find a negotiated resolution.
Despite these overtures, the prospects for meaningful dialogue remain unclear. Observers argue that the lack of trust between the parties and ongoing military actions on both sides make a diplomatic breakthrough difficult in the near term. As the conflict deepens, the choices facing Trump could define not only the trajectory of the war but also the legacy of his presidency.