BLURB: The expiration of the New START treaty leaves the US and Russia without limits on nuclear arms.
Washington
Russia and the United States are no longer constrained by any formal limits on the size of their strategic nuclear arsenals after the expiration of their last remaining arms control agreement on Thursday. The lapse of the New START Treaty marks a significant turning point in global nuclear governance, ending more than five decades of bilateral efforts to regulate the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons.
The treaty, which also involved Russia, capped the number of deployed strategic warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers each side could maintain. It also included a robust verification regime, allowing on-site inspections and data exchanges that helped build transparency and reduce the risk of miscalculation between the two nuclear superpowers.
Originally signed in 2010 and extended in 2021 for five years, New START was widely viewed by arms control experts as a cornerstone of strategic stability. Its expiration without a successor agreement underscores the deep deterioration in U.S.–Russia relations amid broader geopolitical tensions, including conflicts, sanctions, and mutual accusations of treaty violations.
The treaty was the last surviving agreement from a long lineage of nuclear arms control frameworks that began during the Cold War, when Washington and Moscow sought to reduce the risk of catastrophic nuclear confrontation. Earlier accords such as SALT, START I, and New START gradually lowered arsenals from Cold War peaks of tens of thousands of warheads to significantly smaller, though still devastating, numbers.
With no legal limits now in place, analysts warn that both countries could theoretically expand or modernize their nuclear forces without restraint. While neither side has immediately announced plans to dramatically increase warhead numbers, military modernization programs are already underway in both capitals, raising concerns about a renewed arms race.
U.S. officials have said they remain open to future arms control talks, emphasizing the importance of predictability and transparency. Russian officials, however, have linked any new negotiations to broader security conditions, arguing that arms control cannot be separated from wider political and military disputes.
