New Delhi
In her 15 years of uninterrupted rule, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is now facing a formidable challenge from a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state where she is being largely projected as having lost the initial political edge.
As per the average of nine major exit polls, the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election paints a picture of a highly personalised and close contest between the BJP and the incumbent Trinamool Congress.
The Assembly has 294 seats, so a simple majority would mean 148.
Most of the nine exit polls cluster around this threshold, with the BJP predicted to be poised for a breakthrough, even if close.
The contest seems largely concentrated in the south of the state, where the ruling party used to sweep the seven districts with 142 seats that went to polls in the second phase this time.
In the north, the BJP has been maintaining its lead through Parliamentary and Assembly polls, especially since its phenomenal surge in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, adding 16 of West Bengal’s 42 constituencies to its previous kitty of just two.
Historically, the Darjeeling mountains and the industrial belt in and around Asansol have largely supported the BJP.
The party has also successfully wooed a part of the Matua community. A socio-religious group, Matua roots can be traced back to the Namasudra movement led by Harichand Thakur in the 19th century. Originally formed to challenge caste-based discrimination and promote social equality, the Matuas became a significant voice for marginalised Hindus, particularly those who migrated from then East Pakistan (later Bangladesh) during the Partition.
In West Bengal, they are concentrated in districts like North 24 Parganas and Nadia, where their numbers make them a decisive electoral bloc.
Meanwhile, the BJP also did well in the tribal areas, particularly to the west of the state, hoisting the saffron flag across large tracts of the largely forested lands in these parts bordering Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha.
The surge continued in the 2021 Assembly election with the BJP emerging as the principal Opposition party after cornering 77 seats.